Two teams with Canadian content have a slight chance to make the final eight pairs at the ATP World Tour Championship in London.
But a lot of really great things have to happen.
(Update, Friday: Pospisock upset the Bryan brothers in the quarter-finals, and Bopanna-Mergea were eliminated. That means that the Can-Am team has its fate in its own hands: win Paris, go to London. Get to the final, be eligible as the alternates).
At the moment, seven teams are qualified. The battle for the eighth and final spot (barring injuries to the other pairs) is still alive between five teams (current points totals in brackets)
8. Rohan Bopanna (IND) / Florin Mergea (ROU) (3455)
9. Alexander Peya (AUT) / Bruno Soares (BRA) (3330)
10. Vasek Pospisil (CAN) / Jack Sock (USA) (2820)
11. Juan Sebastian Cabal / Robert Farah (COL) (2735)
12. Daniel Nestor (CAN) / Edouard Roger-Vasselin (FRA) (2530)
Pospisil and Sock are the only one of the contending teams that fell in the top half of the draw; the others can knock each other out and help them out a bit if they take care of their own business.
There’s probably not much argument that had they played more together, Pospisil (and Sock) and Nestor (and Roger-Vasselin, who have just seven tournaments together) likely would be right in the mix. Pospisil and Sock didn’t prioritize this as they made their fall schedules, and so often found themselves in different cities. But as it is, it’s down to the wire.
Peya and Soares, who are splitting up at season’s end, helped themselves quite a bit as they put 500 points on their resumé by winning the doubles title in Basel on Sunday.
Only Bopanna and Mergea, at No. 8, are seeded at the Masters 1000 in Paris this week, as all the top teams are competing.
Nestor and Roger-Vasselin, obviously, are the long shots.
What Nestor and Roger-Vasselin have to do:
*Win the title, and hope Bopanna-Mergea lose their first match, which will be in the second round. Bopanna and Mergea have a first-round bye. But per ATP rules, if they lose their first match (second-round match), they receive second-round prize money but not second-round ranking points. Bopanna-Mergea will play either Cabal/Farah, or Lopez/Mirnyi.
As well, they have to hope that Peya-Soares lose before the semi-finals.
What Pospisock has to do:
*Win the title (they have Matkowski-Zimonjic at No. 7 and the Bryans at No. 1 in their quarter).
*Hope Peya/Soares AND Bopanna/Mergea lose in the semis or earlier (one of the two pairs will definitely do that as they could meet in the quarter-finals)
What Bopanna/Mergea have to do:
*Win the title
*Make the final and defeat Peya/Soares in the quarters, where they could meet (If they lose to Peya/Soares there, they’d be out)
*Make the semi-final, and hope Pospisock doesn’t win the title (they would edge Bopanna/Mergea out by five points in that case)
*If Peya/Soares are out by that potential quarter-final meeting, they qualify by reaching the final no matter what anyone else does
What Peya/Soares have to do:
*If they beat Bopanna/Mergea (or Cabal/Farah) in the quarter-final, they would be in UNLESS Pospisock wins the title.
*If they reach the final, they’re in no matter what the other teams do.
What Cabal/Farah have to do:
*Win the title (including beating Bopanna/Mergea in the second round, and Peya/Soares in the quarters if both teams get there).